000
ABNT20 KNHC 180504
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER BELIZE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
  ...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 the center of TWO was located near 16.7, -88.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO

• Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3
  Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS... ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 3
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
  Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 180242 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 27 31 34 44 56 NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 57 41 31 32 22 NA TROPICAL STORM 18 16 28 33 23 22 NA HURRICANE X X 1 2 2 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 2 2 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 25KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:43:02 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:04:44 GMT ]]>

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180501
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 18 Jun 2013 06:05:58 GMT