000
FXUS63 KDDC 251918 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS LEAVING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERLIES
AS A VERY WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS DOMINATING OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OF +10 TO +14C AT 700 HPA
AND A RESULTANT STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS SPREADING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO THE GROUND...THE LEE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WYOMING WITH A WEAK
DRYLINE STRUCTURE IN PLACE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
VIA DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ON THE EAST SIDE WHILE 30S TO 40S EXIST
ON THE WEST SIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...IS PRODUCING MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT WITH DECENT INHIBITION
REMAINING...EVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS IS MOSTLY ABSENT THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF STRATUS WILL BE THE EARLIEST PROBLEM THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TONIGHT.

STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING FARTHER EASTWARD, PERHAPS BY BEING
RADIATIONALLY WARMED BY THE MID CLOUD LAYER ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OBSERVABLE IN 11-3.9 MICRON, AS WELL AS VEERING SURFACE
WINDS. IT CAN ONLY BE SAFE TO ASSUME STRATUS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN STRONG INSOLATION RESUMES.
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO
AROUND 12 MB WILL ENSURE MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOES NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY`S OFFICIAL HIGH FORECAST OF UPPER
80`S TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING APPEARS TO
BE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE REASONABLY WARM OR CAPPED
NATURE OF THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOCUSED CONVECTION
ALONG A DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FEATURE (AND THE DRYLINE ISN`T REALLY
THAT SHARP ANYWAY). THE VARIOUS NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 TYPES OF CONVECTION (IF AT ALL). RELATIVELY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN  KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING. A RELATIVELY SMALL HAIL THREAT AND PROBABLY A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A COLD POOL INDUCED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT
COULD EXIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BETTER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS , NEAR THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. IF
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THAT ZONE, A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE BETTER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY EXIST THAT COULD BE DRIVEN
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BE A
HINDRANCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SW KS, AS THE NAM WARMS THE
MIDLAYERS BY ABOUT ANOTHER DEGREE WHICH COULD PREVENT CONVECTION
ALTOGETHER OVER SW KANSAS. IF CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE, IT SHOULD
BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS UNCLEAR, ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM +12 TO NEAR +14C
ABOVE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, GIVEN
THE EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WESTERN KANSAS AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SUBTLE WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE
850MB-700MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90. JUST WEST OF
THE DRYLINE COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THESE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY JUST WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS COMBINED
WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES, AND THEN OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. EXACT TIMING IS UNCLEAR SO WILL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD LOWER HIGHS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE HYS, DDC, AND
GCK TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER, A FEW HIGHER
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO TRIGGER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY MOVE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE GCK TERMINAL BEFORE DARK. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A LOWER MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT, BACKING INTO THE HYS TERMINAL SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL BACK INTO THE 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
10 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 MPH
BOTH DAYS, HOWEVER BASED ON THE RECENT FUEL STATUS AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  66  95 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  63  98  65  96 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  61  98  63  96 /  20   0  10  10
LBL  63 100  65  98 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  64  92  67  92 /  10  20  20  20
P28  65  90  68  92 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion