Day 1 Severe Thunderstorm Outook

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Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


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ACUS01 KWNS 171558
SWODY1
SPC AC 171556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONGESTUS SWELLING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA COMMENSURATE WITH DIURNALLY BOLSTERED PBL
CIRCULATIONS. THE GREATEST AGITATION TO THE CU FIELD IS NOTED OVER
THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS
YIELDS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB DEPICTING AN H5 TEMPERATURE AROUND
-12C. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF MUCH OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE AN INCREASING INFLUX OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OWING TO VEERING
OF POST-FRONTAL FLOW. FARTHER N...SUCH AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS
BEEN LESS PROMINENT YIELDING A DECLINE OF BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT
ACROSS FL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS STATIC
STABILITY DIURNALLY LOWERS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
INTENSIFY. WITH MIAMI VWP SAMPLING MODEST 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR -- 
I.E. AROUND 20-25 KT -- MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...AS MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED INVOF THE W
COAST BY BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL ELYS AND CONVECTION REGENERATES TOWARD
7.0-7.5-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED -- REDUCING THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE AND
PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION.

...ELSEWHERE...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH LEADING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION FOCUSING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITHIN
A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PRECEDING THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A
FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO
THE GREAT BASIN...AS DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTERCEPTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM.

..COHEN/SMITH.. 04/17/2014